Global investment in AI could reach $200 billion by 2025
Cutting-edge artificial intelligence techniques are on the cusp of explosive adoption, potentially unleashing trillions in spending and turbocharging global economic growth, according to a new forecast by Goldman Sachs.
In a report released this week, Goldman analysts forecasted total investment in machine intelligence could hit around $200 billion worldwide by 2025. While eye-popping, this figure represents just a slice of projected spending as more businesses embrace AI systems. Goldman expects the 2020s will see sweeping AI implementation, with leading adopters undertaking substantial retooling to incorporate capabilities like predictive analytics, intelligent automation and generative content creation.
Goldman believes that between 2025-2035, peak AI investment may reach 2.5-4% of GDP in tech-leading countries like the US. For other major developers like China, spending could hit 1.5-2.5% of output. Though adopting AI requires major near-term costs, Goldman argues the long-run productivity windfalls warrant these outlays.
Once AI becomes deeply woven into operations, Goldman believes it could deliver over 1% in added annual productiveness growth worldwide. The bank compared this disruptive potential to past general purpose technologies like electricity, assembly lines and PCs. However, Goldman cautioned economies may not see the full productivity payoff until the 2030s, after widespread AI assimilation.
In the nearer term, Goldman expects generative systems like GPT-3 to enable new capabilities in software, marketing, customer service and more. Yet realizing AI's full potential requires substantially more investment in hardware, data architecture, talent and business transformation. While benefits may take years to materialize, laying the groundwork now remains critical.
Goldman remains highly bullish on AI's long-term prospects. With continued leadership from AI hubs like the US and China, massive investment and thoughtful governance, the bank believes AI could ultimately spur economic gains rivaling foundational innovations like electricity. There will be challenges, but Goldman sees AI adoption ushering in major profit, efficiency and economic advances.
AI Catalog's chief editor
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